Spread Update
Stocks tumbled for a second day Friday after concerns grew that the deep spending cuts under Europe's bailout plan would slow a global recovery.
Countries including Greece and Spain are being forced to make budget cuts because of soaring debts. Investors are concerned that this new frugality could slow not just the European economic recovery, but the global rebound as well. So they're shrugging off signs of a sustained U.S. turnaround and are instead taking cues from developments abroad.
The Dow Jones industrial average ended down 163 points but closed well off its lows of the day. The Dow and other indexes posted big gains for the week after rocketing higher Monday on hopes that Europe's emergency loan package would prevent a debt crisis in Greece from spreading. Enthusiasm about the plan wore off as the week went on.
The drop in U.S. markets Friday followed a slide of more than 3 percent in European indexes. The euro dropped to a 19-month low against the dollar and is close to its lowest level in four years as confidence in Europe's ability to contain its fiscal problems wanes.
Investors seeking safety piled into treasuries and the dollar. Gold settled lower after hitting another record. Crude oil sank nearly 4 percent, and an indicator of stock market volatility jumped.
Currency traders have been moving out of the euro throughout the week because of concerns that cost-cutting measures in countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal would slow economic activity on the continent and elsewhere. Now stock investors are also looking at those same problems.
Shifting sentiment about the problems in Europe whipsawed the market during the week. Major indexes posted their biggest gains in more than a year on Monday after the nearly $1 trillion rescue package from the European Union and International Monetary Fund raised hopes that debt-strapped EU countries wouldn't be a drag on a global rebound.
As the glow from the bailout package faded during the week, the euro fell sharply against the dollar. The higher dollar hit the prices for oil and other commodities, hurting major U.S. energy and materials companies.
"The euro is leading the market down," said Uri Landesman, president of Platinum Partners in New York. "Clearly the action in the euro is reflecting the fact that at least currency investors don't think the bailout plan plus the austerity measures are sufficient."
Investors now worry that the spending cuts in Europe being called for in the bailout package will curtail the ability of weaker countries like Spain and Portugal to grow their way out of a recession. More strikes are expected in Spain and Greece as workers protest cuts in pensions and other public spending.
"Austerity generally is antigrowth. There is every possibility that they go into a recession over there," said Linda Duessel, equity market strategist at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh.
The euro, which is used by 16 countries, slid as low as $1.2355 in New York, its weakest point since October 2008. The euro has dropped more than 6 percent since the beginning of the month.
"Manufacturing has been doing very well. Exports have been doing very well. And if there is any fear that the global engine is going to slow, even at the margins, it creates uncertainty," said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.
As they sold Friday, traders looked past upbeat reports on retail sales and industrial production. The reason: they make their moves based on what they expect the economy and corporate profits will be six to nine months in the future. Investors are now factoring slower growth in Europe, and perhaps a recession, into stock prices. Good news from the U.S. economy last month is now almost immaterial in traders' eyes.
And, if there are any signs of weakness in U.S. economic reports, that will likely be seen as a bad omen and set off more selling.
Investors also are concerned about the stock market itself, especially the return of the kind of volatility seen during the financial crisis. The Dow has posted swings of more than 100 points in 11 of the past 14 days. Analysts say the bumps will continue until it becomes clearer how Europe will manage its debt problems. Early enthusiasm over last week's nearly $1 trillion rescue plan for Greece and other countries has faded.
Many traders are predicting that the ride will continue to be rough. The Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index -- called the market's fear gauge -- is up 79 percent since April 26, when the Dow closed at its 2010 high of 11,205. The rise in the volatility index means investors are forecasting more drops in the market.
There were also concerns Friday about corporate profits. Shares of credit card companies tumbled after the Senate voted to force them to reduce fees for debit card transactions. Visa fell 9.9 percent, while Mastercard lost 8.6 percent..
Analysts said that stocks ended off their worst levels because traders aren't sure what leaders in Europe might do over the weekend to shore up confidence in the euro and the EU overall. The bailout announcement came on Sunday last week.
The market ended off its lows but it was still a wild week for investors. After jumping 405 points on Monday, the Dow slipped Tuesday and jumped 149 points on Wednesday. The gains helped the Dow erase its losses from late in the prior week when fears about debt woes in Greece pounded the market.
Selling resumed Thursday to send the Dow down about 114 points after more worries emerged about the cost of the European rescue.
For the week, the Dow rose 2.3 percent, the S&P 500 index added 2.2 percent and the Nasdaq gained 3.6 percent.
Treasuries jumped Friday, pushing down yields. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.46 percent from 3.53 percent late Thursday.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index -- known as the market's fear gauge, jumped 17.1 percent.
Gold hit a record of $1,249.70 an ounce before settling down $1.40 to $1,227.80.
Crude oil fell $2.79 to $71.61 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Investors looked past improved reports on April retail sales and industrial production. Reports are due next week on manufacturing, housing and inflation.
About seven stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 6 billion shares compared with 4.9 billion Thursday.
The Russell 200 index of smaller companies lost 15.87, or 2.2 percent, to 693.98. For the week, it rose 6.3 percent.
Britain's FTSE 100 dropped 3.1 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 3.1 percent, and France's CAC-40 tumbled 4.6 percent.
The Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index rose 314.13 points for the week, or 2.7 percent, to 11,758.38.
Now that we have the news wrap for the end of the week, where do we go from here? We have one week left on our spreads, and it looks like its going to be a rough one as problems with Europe seem to be never ending. News seems to be geared to what’s happening there rather than here. When the credit bubble popped, Europe took the lead in saving its banks with huge bailout packages. While investors were impressed with the speed at which the governments acted, the solutions seem now to have just moved the problems from the institutions to the governments themselves. The impression now is that the ethnic equation has come into play, as hard-working, frugal Germans help the more care-free Greeks. Other Mediterranean countries are going to be facing the same problems. At the heart of the euro currency zone are issues that have plagued that area since the dawn of civilization.
So what is the US market trying to do? It looks to us like it’s trying to take into account the failure of countries to pay their debt. Now how do you price in the failure of a country? We don’t think it’s so much the impact that the country’s failure has on the market directly, as what that failure will mean to the rest of the world. We may see even tighter credit markets as creditors think to themselves, “How does a country fail?” We saw the signs in Iceland as their country failed, but they’re not a part of the Euro Currency Zone, so they don’t have the backing of the Euro dollar, nor the impact on the US market.
Now we find the list of countries on the brink of insolvency growing. It seems to always be something that grabs are attention away from what really matters in this market: the US economy and how it fares through this maze. We are in it for the short term with month long spreads, so this day to day news needs to be added to our consideration so we can continue to trade profitably in the near term.
Let’s move on to the Spreads as we finish them out for this cycle.
MAY POSITIONS
|
STOCK
|
TYPE
|
STRIKES
|
CONTRACTS
|
CREDIT
|
CLOSE
|
|
OEX
|
Bull Put
|
500-490
|
15
|
.50
|
Closed
|
|
RUT
|
Bull Put
|
630-620
|
15
|
.45
|
|
|
AAPL
|
Bull Put
|
230-220
|
15
|
.35
|
closed
|
|
RUT
|
Bull Put
|
680-670
|
15
|
.50
|
closed
|
|
RUT
|
Bull Put
|
|
650-640
|
15
|
.40
|
|
RUT 650-640 BULL PUT SPREAD (15 contracts)
RUT CLOSED AT $693.91 Today (43.98 points away from our put spread)
Profit potential of $40.00 per contract
Contingent Stop Order set at $655.00
RUT 630-620 BULL PUT SPREAD (15 contracts)
RUT CLOSED AT $693.91 Today (63.91 points away from our put spread)
Profit potential of $45.00 per contract
Contingent Stop Order set at $635.00
The Rut been are money maker for over a year new and looks to continue that role for the time being as volatility returns to the market place. With the VIX rising we’ll stay here for the coming months, as things work themselves out.
As Always, Trade Happy and Trade Smart